[Au Demand] China Gold Demand to Grow, Capital Economics Says

By  Paul Ploumis 22 Jul 2015  Last updated at  08:15:26 GMT

(Kitco News) - Chinese gold demand remains an important component for the overall market, despite data showing lackluster demand last month.

Tuesday, the Swiss Customs Administration released gold export data for June, which showed that total outflows from the European nation totaled 98.5 tonnes.

Commodity analysts from UBS said in a research note that total exports from Switzerland were at their lowest levels since August, declining 8% from May and down 3% from June 2014.

“The decline in gold being shipped out of Switzerland to the rest of the world in a sense indicates slower physical demand, and indeed ties in with overall market feedback,” they said.

Looking specifically at China, 14 tonnes of gold was exported from Switzerland to Hong Kong, a decline of 25% compared to May.

Despite the monthly drop, China saw a significant increase in gold shipments on an annual basis. Simona, Gambarini, commodity economist at Capital Economics, said in an email to Kitco News that Swiss exports to China were up 368% compared to June 2014, “highlighting that demand from China remains strong.”

UBS also noted that despite the decline last month, Swiss gold shipments to China were up 3% for the first half of the year, compared to 2014. The analysts also dismissed the weaker data last month, saying that this is currently an “unimportant season” for gold.

They added that “physical buyers likely also prefer to wait for clearer signs of stability before scooping up cheaper metal.”

Analysts at Commerzbank are also taking the Swiss trade data with a grain of salt and are waiting for China to release its import data from Hong Kong, which will be published next week.

“Swiss export data had already pointed to subdued Chinese demand back in May, only for China to show surprisingly high import figures,” they said in a report published Tuesday.

Looking forward, Gambarini said that Capital Economics expects to see higher Chinese demand as the price remains near its five-year lows but it take some time to impact prices.

“It is hard to be bullish on the price of gold until markets have time to digest the first Fed rate hike. However, in the medium to long term, other factors will play a major role in determining prices and emerging-markets demand is one of those,” she said.

Original title:June Swiss Gold Exports To China Show Monthly Decline But 368% Rise From 2014

Courtesy: Kitco News